How to spot signals of change around you

Horizon scanning, in your neighborhood

In foresight, the systematic search for signals is called horizon scanning. Organizations do it by reviewing reports, patents or news. But many signals show up on the street first, long before they reach a report.

Where to look

• Markets and shops: payment methods, new products, handwritten signs.
• Transport: how people move, which services appear, which routes change.
• Schools and young people: tools, words and habits they adopt before adults do.
• Basic services: water, power, waste. What fails or changes often anticipates bigger changes.
• Nature: seasons, rivers, rain and crops that behave differently.

Questions that train your eye

• What is here that was not here a year ago?
• What did people use to do that they no longer do?
• What surprised me today, even if it is small?
• What do the youngest or the oldest people do differently?
• What improvised fix solves a problem nobody else is solving?

How to record a signal

A good record is short and concrete. Include:

• What you saw, in one sentence, without interpreting.
• Where and when.
• A photo or audio clip, if possible.
• Your take: why it caught your attention and what could change.

A final tip

Separate the fact from the interpretation. "The stall no longer takes cash" is a fact; "people no longer use banknotes" is an interpretation. Recording the fact first lets other people read it in other ways and makes the conversation richer.