Signals and trends: how they differ
Signals are the beginning; trends are the pattern that appears when many signals point in the same direction.
Published by Mirai · · 4 min read
Three scales of change
Foresight usually distinguishes three scales, from smallest to largest:
- Signal: an early, local hint. You see it in a specific place.
- Trend: a change already visible in many places and sustained over time.
- Megatrend: a broad, long-term force that affects almost everything, such as urbanization, population aging, digitalization or climate change.
From signal to trend
An isolated signal may just be a curiosity. But if stalls in Cusco, Arequipa and Lima stop accepting cash, and drivers and teachers also use their phones to solve things that used to require money or data, the signals start to cluster. That cluster suggests an emerging trend: the phone is becoming everyday infrastructure.
This is why signal spotting is collective by nature. Nobody sees everything; bringing together perspectives from different places makes it possible to notice patterns before they become obvious.
Common mistakes
- Confusing a fad with a trend: a fad rises and falls quickly; a trend changes habits or structures.
- Treating a single signal as proof: a signal opens a question, it does not answer it.
- Only reading headlines: by the time something makes the news, it is no longer a weak signal.
Try it
Pick a trend you know and look for three signals around you that confirm it and one that contradicts it. Signals that contradict a trend are often the most valuable: they may announce the next change.