Foresight for beginners
Foresight does not try to guess the future. It explores several possible futures to make better decisions in the present.
Published by Mirai · · 6 min read
What foresight is
Foresight is the practice of exploring possible futures systematically. It is also called strategic foresight or futures thinking; in Spanish, prospectiva. Its goal is not to predict but to widen what we consider possible, spot opportunities and risks early and make better decisions today.
Governments, companies, innovation teams, nonprofits and schools use it. In Peru, for example, the National Center for Strategic Planning (CEPLAN) publishes trend analyses and scenarios for the country.
Futures, plural
The future is not written, which is why we speak of futures. The same signal can lead down different paths depending on what people, institutions and the environment do. Thinking in plural avoids betting everything on a single story and forces us to ask which decisions bring us closer to, or further from, each path.
A basic cycle
Most foresight methods share a simple cycle:
- Observe: spot signals and trends in your surroundings.
- Question: ask what is happening, why, and which assumptions we take for granted.
- Imagine: build alternative futures over different horizons, for example 2, 10 and 30 years.
- Decide: identify which actions today make sense across several futures at once.
Long-term thinking
Many important decisions, about water, education, cities or work, have effects for decades. Long-term thinking means bringing that horizon into what we decide today. It does not require certainty: it requires curiosity, questions and the willingness to revise what we believed.
UNESCO calls the ability to imagine and use the future to better understand the present futures literacy. Like any literacy, it is learned by practicing.
How to start this week
- Write down one signal a day: something new, unusual or out of place in your neighborhood.
- For each one, ask what could change if it spreads.
- Share your signals and look at other people's: patterns appear when you bring them together.
- Pick one and write two different futures 10 years out: one you would like and one that worries you.