Three horizons: seeing change as it happens

The idea

The three horizons framework helps you see a system change as three patterns that coexist over time. They are not stages that follow one another: they are present at the same time, with different strength.

It was developed by Bill Sharpe and the International Futures Forum, and Sharpe explains it in his 2013 book Three Horizons: The Patterning of Hope. It should not be confused with McKinsey's "three horizons of growth", a model for managing innovation in companies.

The three horizons

• Horizon 1: the dominant way of doing things today. It works, but it is losing fit with a changing world.
• Horizon 3: the practices that could become the new normal. Today they appear small, at the margins: often as weak signals.
• Horizon 2: the transitional innovations between the two. Some help reach the third horizon; others only extend the life of the first.

An example

Think about how people move around a city. Horizon 1 is the transport that dominates today, with its routes and habits. Horizon 3 shows up in small practices: neighborhoods that share bicycles, jobs that no longer require commuting every day. Horizon 2 holds the in-between innovations, such as apps that organize existing transport. The key horizon 2 question is which ones open the way to the third horizon and which only prop up the first.

How to use it with signals

Pick a topic you care about, such as food, work or water, and sort your signals:

• Which signals show that horizon 1 is losing fit?
• Which signals look like seeds of horizon 3?
• Which horizon 2 innovations connect both worlds?
• What from horizon 1 should be protected during the transition?

Why it helps

The framework avoids two common mistakes: believing that what exists now will last forever, and believing that the new will arrive on its own. It also helps people with different views talk to each other, because each horizon has its own logic and its own advocates.